The cashew market in Vietnam is currently experiencing significant fluctuations due to a variety of factors impacting both raw and processed cashew nut prices. As of mid-2024, raw cashew nuts are priced between 0.88 and 1.14 USD per kilogram, while exported cashew kernels are approximately 5,311 USD per ton. This decrease in kernel prices, alongside rising raw material costs, has created a sensitive market environment. Companies face challenges such as high production costs and fierce international competition, yet Vietnam remains the world’s largest cashew exporter, with promising prospects driven by increasing global demand.

Current Market Situation and Cashew Exports in Vietnam

Prices of Raw and Exported Cashew Nuts

As of June 19, 2024, the price of raw cashew nuts in key growing regions of Vietnam ranges from 0.88 to 1.14 USD per kilogram. Meanwhile, the price of exported cashew kernels is around 5,311 USD per ton, which has seen a decrease compared to the beginning of the year. This price fluctuation highlights the current sensitivity of the cashew market​.

Market Sensitivity of Cashew Nuts

The cashew market is currently experiencing sensitivity due to several factors:

  1. Shortage of Raw Cashew Nuts: Processing companies are struggling to procure raw cashew nuts at reasonable prices. Some processors have had to purchase raw cashew nuts at higher prices due to supply shortages, affecting their ability to balance the prices of exported cashew kernels.
  2. Speculation: There is a phenomenon where farmers and traders hold back raw cashew nuts, waiting for prices to rise before selling, which increases pressure on raw cashew nut prices in the market. The shortage has led to an 18% increase in raw cashew nut prices recently​.
  3. International Market Volatility: Vietnam’s cashew export market is facing strong competition from other cashew-producing countries like Ivory Coast and Cambodia, which are enhancing their domestic processing capabilities. This situation puts additional pressure on Vietnamese cashew producers​.

cashewImpact on Supplying Companies

Cashew-supplying companies are facing several challenges:

  • High Raw Material Costs: The increase in raw cashew nut prices raises production costs, impacting the profitability of these companies. The shortage of raw materials forces processors to import at higher prices, making it difficult to balance with the prices of exported cashew kernels​.
  • International Competition: The enhancement of processing and exporting capacities in other countries increases competitive pressure, compelling Vietnamese companies to improve product quality and production efficiency to maintain their global market position.
  • Price Fluctuations: While the price of exported cashew kernels has decreased, the price of raw cashew nuts has increased, reducing profit margins and creating significant financial pressure on processing enterprises​.

Cashew Export Situation in Vietnam

In 2023, Vietnam’s cashew exports reached 3.6 billion USD, marking an 18% increase compared to the previous year. Currently, cashew exports are aiming for a record 4 billion USD in 2024 due to rising global demand. Vietnam remains the largest cashew exporter in the world, primarily supplying the U.S. and China. According to the Vietnam Cashew Association (VINACAS), Vietnam’s cashew exports are expected to increase in the second quarter of 2024 due to rising global demand, particularly from the United States.

Forecast for Cashew Prices and Export Situation

Price Forecast

The price of cashew nuts is expected to remain volatile in the coming months due to several factors:

  1. Supply Constraints: The shortage of raw cashew nuts is likely to continue, maintaining upward pressure on prices. This shortage is driven by both increased domestic consumption in producing countries and logistical challenges in sourcing raw materials.
  2. Speculation and Hoarding: Speculative behaviors by farmers and traders, who withhold stock to sell at higher prices, are expected to persist, adding to market instability.
  3. Climate and Environmental Factors: Weather conditions and climate change impacts could further affect crop yields, influencing supply levels and thus prices.
  4. Global Economic Conditions: Fluctuations in exchange rates, inflation, and economic conditions in major consuming countries like the U.S. and China will also play a role in price movements. Any economic downturns in these regions could dampen demand and stabilize or decrease prices.

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Export Situation Forecast

Vietnam’s cashew export outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with several key points to consider:

  1. Rising Global Demand: Despite the challenges, global demand for cashew nuts is expected to grow, driven by increasing health consciousness and the popularity of plant-based diets. This trend supports a positive outlook for Vietnamese exports ​.
  2. Market Diversification: Vietnam is making efforts to diversify its export markets beyond the U.S. and China to reduce dependency on these major markets and mitigate risks associated with economic fluctuations in these regions.
  3. Quality Improvements: Continued improvements in processing technology and product quality are essential for maintaining and expanding market share. Meeting stringent international standards will help Vietnamese cashews remain competitive ​.
  4. Government and Industry Support: The Vietnam Cashew Association (VINACAS) and government initiatives aim to support the industry through policy measures, training programs, and incentives for technological upgrades. These efforts are expected to enhance the competitiveness of Vietnamese cashews in the global market​.

While the cashew market faces several challenges, including supply shortages and intense international competition, the outlook for Vietnam’s cashew industry remains positive. With rising global demand, strategic market diversification, and continuous quality improvements, Vietnam is well-positioned to achieve its export targets. However, the industry must navigate market sensitivities and price volatility carefully to sustain growth.

Contact Information:

HCM office Address: 191/6B Le Van Viet Street, Tang Nhon Phu A Ward, Thu Duc City, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam

Factory Address: Nguyen Thai Hoc Street, Phuoc Tan Hamlet, Binh Tan Commune, Phu Rieng District, Binh Phuoc Province, Vietnam

Email: sales@cptcorp.vn

Website: cptcorp.vn

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